As markets enter the first week of June 2025, investors are preparing for a packed macroeconomic agenda dominated by high-impact U.S. employment data, fresh inflation signals from the Eurozone, and crucial central bank communications. Here’s a day-by-day breakdown and what to watch.
Monday, June 2 – Cautious Start with Manufacturing Pulse
The week begins with a moderate flow of data. While the Italian Bank Holiday may reduce early EUR volatility, focus swiftly shifts to U.S. manufacturing activity:
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ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, above the previous reading (48.7) but still under 50, indicating continued contraction albeit at a slower pace.
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ISM Manufacturing Prices surged to 70.2 from 69.8, signaling inflationary pressures in input costs remain elevated.
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FOMC Member Waller and Fed Chair Powell will speak later in the day, likely offering key insights on the Fed’s assessment of inflation stickiness and rate trajectory.
Implication: The combination of stronger input prices and cautious optimism in manufacturing could fuel short-term USD volatility—especially if Powell hints at rate hikes.
Tuesday, June 3 – Eurozone CPI Flash Underwhelms
Tuesday sees pivotal inflation data out of the Eurozone:
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Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y fell to 2.4% vs. forecast 2.7%, while Headline CPI also slipped to 2.0% from 2.2%.
This weaker-than-expected inflation print could bolster the dovish camp within the ECB, ahead of Thursday’s policy decision. Meanwhile, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings figure held at a robust 7.19 million, underscoring labor market resilience.
Implication: The disinflation trend in Europe may increase bets on future rate cuts, weighing on the euro.
Wednesday, June 4 – All Eyes on ADP and ISM Services
Midweek brings key employment and service sector data from the U.S.:
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ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in hot at 110K vs. 62K prior, signaling strong private sector job creation.
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ISM Services PMI slightly improved to 52.0, supporting the view that the U.S. services economy remains in expansion.
Implication: These figures could raise expectations for a robust NFP report, keeping the USD supported.
Thursday, June 5 – ECB Policy Decision and U.S. Jobless Claims
Markets brace for dual action:
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ECB is expected to lower its Main Refinancing Rate to 2.15% from 2.40%, confirming the start of its rate-cutting cycle.
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The accompanying ECB Press Conference will be crucial in assessing the pace and extent of future easing.
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Meanwhile, U.S. Unemployment Claims came in at 232K, slightly below the previous 240K, maintaining a historically low trend.
Implication: A confirmed ECB cut with dovish tone could weigh heavily on the EUR/USD, while resilient U.S. labor data continues to provide support to the greenback.
Friday, June 6 – U.S. Labor Market Super Friday
The week culminates with the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and wage growth figures:
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Average Hourly Earnings m/m increased 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% prior, hinting at persistent wage pressures.
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However, Non-Farm Employment Change disappointed at 130K vs. forecast 177K, signaling a cooling labor market.
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Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%.
Implication: Mixed signals. The stronger earnings and steady unemployment support a soft-landing narrative, but the NFP miss may raise concerns about labor market momentum.
Saturday, June 7 – ECB’s Lagarde Wraps the Week
ECB President Lagarde is set to speak on Saturday, likely elaborating on Thursday’s policy shift. Markets will look for confirmation of future rate path expectations and any ECB reassessment following disinflation trends.
Conclusion: USD Resilience vs. EUR Softness
This week’s data supports a narrative of a gradually slowing but resilient U.S. economy, particularly on the labor and services front. In contrast, the Eurozone’s weaker CPI figures and rate cut expectations put the euro on the back foot. With central bank speakers dominating headlines, traders should prepare for volatility—especially in EUR/USD, gold, and U.S. indices.
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